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Premier League 2026-27 Title Favourites: New Managers, New Odds, What to Expect
Walk into Anfield, the Etihad, or Stamford Bridge this season and the dugout will look different before a ball is even kicked. Three of the Premier League's Big Six have replaced their manager since May, and a fourth has spent the summer bedding in a coach who arrived within a day of his old club's season ending. It's the deepest managerial reshuffle at the top of the table in over a decade (Source: ESPN, 2026), landing at the exact moment Arsenal are trying to defend a title to break the 22 year curse.
That combination, a champion trying to repeat, and half the league's biggest clubs trying to reinvent themselves at once. This is why this title race is harder to call than it's been in years. Here's who the odds say is best placed to win it, and why the managerial upheaval matters more than the numbers alone suggest.
Arsenal's Title Defence
Mikel Arteta's Arsenal finally got over the line last season, finishing on 85 points and seven clear of Manchester City to win their first Premier League title since 2003-04. That gap wasn't a fluke, it was the product of a squad Arteta had been building toward a title challenge for several seasons running, and it's why bookmakers and prediction markets alike have installed Arsenal as clear favourites to go back-to-back. At the time of writing, this is currently priced around 6/4 by traditional bookmakers (Source: William Hill, 2026) and sitting at 37% implied probability on Polymarket's prediction market (Source: Polymarket, 2026).
Unlike three of their closest rivals, Arsenal enter the season with continuity rather than upheaval, same manager, same core group, no dugout overhaul. In a summer defined by other clubs starting afresh, that stability is arguably Arsenal's single biggest advantage. The question isn't whether Arteta's group can still play the football that won them the title but, can the rest of the league close the gap to stop Arsenal's dominance.
The Manchester City Reset
Pep Guardiola has left Manchester City after a decade that redefined what the club and arguably the Premier League. His successor is Enzo Maresca previously of Chelsea, who takes charge at the Etihad for the first time this summer.
Maresca inherits a squad still built substantially around Guardiola's principles. There's less rebuilding required than at a club starting from scratch, but there's also an entire footballing identity to either continue or quietly replace. Regardless of the route Maresca and Man city take, pressure to deliver will be at a high. City remain clear second-favourites regardless, at 5/2 with bookmakers and 30% on Polymarket which tells you the market still rates the mcfc squad.
Liverpool's New Direction
Liverpool's change was arguably the most predictable of the summer. After Arne Slot's side slid to a fifth-place finish, the club moved for Andoni Iraola, who spent three seasons turning Bournemouth into one of the league's most tactical sides before making the switch to Anfield in June 2026 (Source: Premier League, 2026).
Iraola's Bournemouth teams were known for an aggressive, high-intensity pressing style that got results with a low budget squad. The type of intensity that was seen under Klopp and massively lacking under Slot. The betting markets have Liverpool as fourth-favourites at around 5/1, level with Manchester United at 12% on Polymarket, which is a fair reflection of a club with genuine top-four quality but a manager who has never taken charge at this club level.
Where Chelsea and Manchester United Fit In
The single fastest managerial appointment of the summer belonged to Chelsea. Xabi Alonso, fresh from an unbelievable campaign at Bayer Leverkusen and a brief spell at Real Madrid, some say he was unlucky to walk. Nonetheless, Xabi was confirmed as Chelsea's new manager less than 24 hours after the club's FA Cup final defeat, signing a four-year deal that began on July 1st (Source: ESPN, 2026). Few managerial moves in recent Premier League history have been agreed with that kind of speed, and it signals a club unwilling to let a difficult end to last season drag into a slow rebuild.
Manchester United, by contrast, head into the season as the more familiar quantity of the two, sitting alongside Liverpool at 12% on Polymarket, very much part of the chasing pack rather than the top two. They're not signalled highly for a title conversation considering a rebuilding squad under Michael Carrick and the intensity of fixtures in the upcoming season.
What the Betting Markets and Prediction Markets Agree On
If you only take one number from this article: Arsenal are favourites everywhere you look, Manchester City are a clear second, and the gap between third and fourth is marginal.
That's worth pausing on, because it's unusual for real-money prediction markets like Polymarket and fixed-odds bookmakers to land in almost the same order. Polymarket has Arsenal at 37%, City at 30%, then Liverpool and Manchester United tied at 12%, with Chelsea just behind at 10% (Source: Polymarket, 2026). Bookmaker pricing tells essentially the same story, with Arsenal and City the only two clubs realistically backed as outright winners and everyone else priced as long-shot contenders at best (Source: William Hill, 2026; Racing Post, 2026).
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the favourites to win the Premier League 2026-27?
Arsenal are the clear favourites to defend their title, priced around 6/4 by bookmakers and sitting at 37% implied probability on prediction markets like Polymarket, with Manchester City a distant-but-clear second at roughly 5/2 and 30%.
How many Premier League clubs have new managers this season?
Eight Premier League clubs made managerial changes over the summer of 2026, the largest reshuffle at this level in more than ten years with Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Fulham, Bournemouth, and Crystal Palace among the clubs appointing new head coaches.
Has Manchester City replaced Pep Guardiola?
Yes. Guardiola departed after a decade in charge, and Enzo Maresca previously Chelsea's head coach has taken over at the Etihad for the 2026-27 season.
Who replaced Arne Slot at Liverpool?
Andoni Iraola, who spent three seasons at Bournemouth, was appointed Liverpool head coach in June 2026 after Slot's side finished fifth the previous season.
Deciding Which Fixtures to Watch This Season
With this much change at the top of the table, the early rounds of the season carry more intrigue than a normal title race usually offers this early, new-manager bounces, and new-manager stumbles, tend to concentrate in the opening months, and this year there are four of them happening at once among the league's biggest clubs.
If you're weighing up which Big Six fixtures to prioritise for matchday tickets this season, there are bound to be upsets and high quality football on show.
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